wate why can't we see own doom? a gigantic chunk of all human beings who have existed until now are alive today, rite? i think a guess of 1-3 billion people born in my lifetime if i get average life points is a good guess
i think u can restate the problem to avoid the metaphysical weirdness--like, given a probability distribution of population/time graphs, what function can you give to the peeps from birth rank (regardless of observerotron) to DOOM likelihood with the highest expected value of correct peeps? it definitely misleads cavemen and may mislead 21st century nerds, but as long as there are more 200th century robohumans that have a correct guess than everything is peachy!!
of course that just delays the metaphysics, because now i have this stupid function, what does it mean? should i actually be more careful because it says DOOM soon when i know that it would say that no matter what as long as I had my birth order?
the assumes that really bother me is the two case assumption--sure it probably works for some continuous prior prob. distributions of birth/time graphs but it can't work for all, so i think there is weirdness there. |
