wate that was not the point of my story!!!!
anyway so the strategy u employed in that story makes sense, yah? its a lot more likely that u r 3 of 10 than 3 of 10 billion. In fact if u do bayesian stats and even if u have prior probability of 99% assigned to urn having 10 billion names, after drawing on 3rd name bayes says it is more likely that 10 names are in urn!
well fine but now imagine instead of urns u have A BIRTHDATE RANKING OF ALL HUMANS, and i have told u that there are either 30 billion humans in the past, present, future of humanity, or something more like 300 trillion.
the first case is humanity dying off fairly soon (a century or so), the second case is humanity colonizing solar system and living for 1000s of years.
well now u have drawn the 15 billionth ticket from the urn.
which do u bet: 30 billion or 300 trillion? |
